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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still